Header - Landing Pages

9th Floor, Al Zamil Tower
305 Government Avenue
Manama, Bahrain

Manama Office:

Central Park Towers DIFC
Level 21, Office 21-43
Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Dubai Office:

Suite 102, Signature Center
Prince Turki bin Abdulaziz Al Awwal Road, Hittin
Riyadh 13512-2110, Saudi Arabia

Riyadh Office:

Kuwait City,
Mirqab -  Assima Tower – Floor 24,
Kuwait

Kuwait Office:

 Track your portfolio on ‘The Family Office app

Already a client? 

About us

Investment Philosophy

Board Members

Leadership Team

Our Locations

Who we are

What we offer

Our solutions

Digital Platform

Access to Offshore Structuring

What we do

Overview

Portfolio Builder

Diversification Calculator

Retirement Calculator

Risk Profiler

Financial tools

Articles

Press Release

Knowledge Hub

Management Views

White Paper

Webinars

Market Outlook

Insights

linkedin share icon

LinkedIn

Share Share Icon

instagram Share Icon

Instagram

Phone Icon

Call

Email Share Icon

Email

Contact Us

Footer

The PCE Inflation index began to rise from September 2024, the very month in which the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) began cutting rates. December’s figure reached 2.6%, the highest reading since April that year. Core PCE inflation (excluding Food and Energy) reached 2.8% (later revised upwards to 2.9%). These higher readings suggested that inflation might be stickier than expected, if not resurgent.

The meeting minutes, accordingly, show a clear change in mindset, with some commentators even describing the tone as “hawkish”.

 Inflation risks were perceived as “skewed to the upside” owing to the persistence of core inflation and the unknown impact of trade policy.

The topic of liquidity management and the future path of Quantitative Tightening (QT) was also discussed. It seems possible that the Fed will begin to slow or pause the tightening process in the Spring, in line with the mid-2025 debt ceiling deadline and concerns over banking reserves, which are nearing $3 trillion, close to the “ample reserves” threshold.

The latest CPI inflation figures, updated on February 12th, appeared to reinforce the view that inflation may be back on an upward path, rising for the fourth consecutive month to 3% (compared with 2.4% in September). The most recent PCE figures however, released on February 28th, show a more benign picture, with both Headline and Core figures down from December’s readings, at 2.5% and 2.6% respectively.

The overall economic situation also appears solid, with GDP growth of 2.3% for the 4th quarter (2.8% overall for 2024),

One jarring note in the data, pointed out in various commentaries, is the drop in personal spending, which fell by 0.2% in January, the fastest drop in four years when adjusted for inflation (-0.5%).

 After growth of 0.7% in December, this raises the question of whether consumers are beginning to get nervous.

This mixed data—solid growth yet spending weakness—reinforces the Fed’s cautious ‘wait and see’ stance, and has been corroborated by recent statements from Fed officials.

With definitive data comparatively sparse, the market has little to do but speculate about the future. The three main items of concern are trade, immigration, and fiscal policy, all of which depend to a great extent on the decisions of the current U.S. administration under President Trump, whose actions are less easy to predict than many other world leaders.

Tariffs on Chinese imports, along with steel and aluminum, are already in effect, while those on Canada and Mexico are in what might be called a state of flux.

 While further clarity is hoped for on April 2nd, where details on tariffs for other trading partners are set to be revealed, the language of the administration suggests nothing should be regarded as fixed, as tariffs are as much a geopolitical tool as they are a purely economic measure.

Meanwhile, everyone - including the Fed - is waiting to see what form the Trump administration’s efforts towards achieving budget sustainability will take. The centrality of tax cuts, combined with somewhat vague commitments on reining in government spending, make for a tangled skein.

Markets are more or less certain that the coming meeting will see rates held where they are, with a consensus emerging (as of the time of writing) that there will likely be three cuts this year.

The coming year will prompt many important discussions about the future of the U.S. economy and its financial system. For instance, a new congressional panel is being set up to examine the role of the Fed, and whether it should be more focused on inflation as opposed to having multiple mandates.

 Ultimately, it is trends like these that determine the long-term future of the markets.

Having a long-term view makes it possible to focus on a small number of high-impact macro trends, rather than getting caught up in the innumerable, ephemeral imponderables that crowd in via the news feed daily. It also makes for an investment portfolio that is robust to short-term volatility and flexible enough to adapt to the unexpected.

Fed Decision March 2025: The Waiting Game

Tapping into Kuwait’s widely favorable and inviting investment climate, the regionally renowned investment and wealth management powerhouse, The Family Office, recently landed in Kuwait, introducing a competitive suite of investment and wealth management solutions, tailored to Kuwait’s most aspiring high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), and affluent investors. Committed to redefining successful investment and wealth management in Kuwait, The Family Office merges tech-driven solutions with over two decades of experience and the resources of a global network of leading asset management partners.

“For decades, private markets investment opportunities were largely reserved for institutions and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. However, fintech has reshaped access to investment opportunities, enabling many aspiring individuals to secure a better, more stable future through inclusive, democratized, and tech-driven investment solutions,” said Abdulaziz Al Humaidhi, Deputy CEO of The Family Office Investment Advisory Company (Kuwait). “Despite how accessible investment tools are today, institutional-grade opportunities in private equity, private credit, and real estate remain exclusive. We bridge this gap through global partnerships with world-renowned asset management market leaders, including BlackRock, KKR, Carlyle, and Apollo.”

Al Humaidhi elaborated that modern technology paired with expertise-led acumen and solid global connections are at the heart of The Family Office’s efforts to diminish investment gatekeeping and offer clients a wider range of portfolio types and investment opportunities that respond to their varying investment aspirations, risk preferences, and time horizons.

“Regardless of portfolio preferences, our independent investment team conducts rigorous due diligence in sourcing and selecting high-quality investment opportunities. In fact, only 4% of the investment deals we evaluate  pass our thorough screening process to be considered viable opportunities. By prioritizing quality over quantity, we continue to earn our clients’ trust in the critical endeavour of growing their wealth,” Al Humaidhi added.

In addition to the one-on-one advisory that The Family Office’s financial advisors offer to clients, the company also fortifies its services with advanced digital tools designed to enhance our clients’ investment experience and foster utmost transparency. This includes portfolio simulation, which allows clients to visualize and simulate a decade’s worth of portfolio performance, giving them an overview of their current choices and future outcomes. Such insights enable clients to make investment choices that are aligned with their strategies and long-term goals. 

Other digital tools that The Family Office offers include The Marketplace, where clients can trade shares in private market investments, and All In One Plus, presenting investors with consolidated financial insights and enabling them to monitor all their assets and liabilities for a holistic view of their financial position.

For more than 20 years, The Family Office has gained the trust of over 800 clients globally, managing over $ 2.1 billion in assets. Licensed and regulated in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Switzerland, the United States, and Hong Kong, the company’s expansion to Kuwait follows its acquisition of the necessary licenses from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) – Kuwait.

The Family Office Company B.S.C. (c) in Bahrain and Dubai, its Riyadh-based wealth manager, The Family Office International Investment Company, and its investment advisory firm in Kuwait, The Family Office Investment Advisory Company (Kuwait) K.S.C. (c) are regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, the Capital Market Authority of Saudi Arabia, and the Capital Markets Authority of Kuwait. Serving hundreds of families and individuals, the firm helps clients achieve their wealth goals through custom-made investment strategies that cater to their unique needs.

Certain services and products offered by The Family Office may not be available to investors in certain jurisdictions where they reside. Investors are responsible for ensuring compliance with local laws and regulations before accessing our products.

The Family Office Company B.S.C. (c) is a Category 1 Investment Firm regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain, C.R. No. 53871 dated 21/6/2004. Paid Up Capital: US$10,000,000. The Family Office Company B.S.C. (c) only offers products and services to ‘accredited investors’ as defined by the Central Bank of Bahrain.

The Family Office International Investment is a joint stock closed company owned by one person. Paid-up capital SR20 million. CR No. 101060698, Unified National Number 7007701696. Licensed by the Capital Market Authority (no. 17-182-30) to carry out arranging, advisory and managing investments and operating funds, with respect to securities.

The Family Office Company B.S.C. (c), DIFC Branch is a recognized company in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) under registration number 6567 and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) as a Category 4 to carry out Arranging and Advising Services. The Family Office Company B.S.C. (c), DIFC Branch is not permitted to deal with Retail Clients (as defined in DFSA’s Conduct of Business Module).

The Family Office Investment Advisory Company (Kuwait) K.S.C. (c), incorporated in 2024, is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority State of Kuwait and authorized to conduct Investment Advisory and Subscription Agent (license no. AP/2024/0009).  Paid-up capital KWD 1,000,000, CR no. 511443.

The Family Office Introduces Bespoke Investment Opportunities to the Kuwaiti Market

The 60:40 approach (60% equities and 40% bonds) has traditionally been an effective way to diversify, as equities and bonds tend to offset each other when one of them declines. In 2022, both lost value, as a result of the sharp increase in interest rates and a troubled global economic situation.

While the strategy has shown better performance since then

, the equity-bond correlation could once again turn positive if inflation returns, interest rates go up, or market volatility increases, none of which are inconceivable in the coming year.

From “Cheap Beta” to Value-Added Strategies

In addition to being effective, the 60:40 strategy was relatively cheap to implement. The rise of index-tracking made stock-picking a passive exercise in following the markets (known as “Beta” in investing parlance). However, equity valuations are already very high according to most estimations, suggesting that a correction is due. Or at the very least, further years of bumper growth (>20%) are unlikely.

Investors are therefore in need and in search of ways to ensure growth without exposure to the risks outlined above. As we have written about in previous articles, private markets (equity, credit, infrastructure) are less exposed to the volatility of publicly traded stocks and bonds, and also offer the potential for ‘hands-on’ improvement (value-added strategies) via operational or strategic change.

Late-Stage LBOs: A Differentiator in Private Markets

At The Family Office, we specialize in late-stage leveraged buyouts (LBOs). This involves identifying mature, established companies with stable cashflows, and finding ways to unlock additional value by working with the management team.

This could be described as the purest form of ‘active’ investing: not only choosing appropriate companies in which to invest, but helping to realize their potential for higher growth. This stands in contrast to passive investing, which can only watch the market and follow its twists and turns.

In addition to the effort required in locating opportunities and finding ways to enhance growth prospects, private investments also have certain restrictions in comparison with public investments, chiefly, liquidity.

In exchange for the potential for higher returns, investors must be prepared to ‘lock up’ their money for longer periods, as value-added strategies often take years to implement and for business improvements to materialize. This is not necessarily a problem for those with longer-term time horizons, but is an important consideration for those with near-term liquidity needs. Although these strategies are designed to capture long-term growth, they are not entirely immune to market fluctuations and operational challenges. Our active management approach is focused on mitigating these risks while capitalizing on the opportunities presented.

In addition to the need to diversify while enhancing returns, two important trends are leading investors to allocate more capital to private markets. The first is that fewer companies are choosing to go public, meaning that the universe of opportunities off publicly traded platforms is even larger than before.

The second trend is that technology is making private markets investing more accessible and transparent. Whereas previously many processes were done manually, new automated workflows mean that - for example - issuing and transferring shares can be done almost as seamlessly as on public platforms. The development of trading infrastructure, including secondary markets, also means that investments are less illiquid, reducing the risk to investors.

Approaches to investing that have worked well for the past two decades may, or may not, be reaching an inflection point this year. While every investment strategy inherently carries certain risks, including market volatility, liquidity constraints, and sector-specific challenges, diversification and active management remain essential. No one can predict the future, but we can and should prepare for a range of scenarios.

While private markets investing spans a wide range of potential avenues, from venture capital to real estate, we have chosen late-stage LBOs as they offer a combination of safety (from stable cash flows) and upside potential (via operational improvements). There are no one-size-fits-all solutions, and we encourage you to discuss with an advisor before proceeding.

Thank you for accepting our invitation to attend the Playbook Flagship event!

Thank you for accepting our invitation
to attend the Playbook Flagship event!