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Almost all signs indicate that the music is still at full blast, to continue with the ex-Citi chief’s analogy. Perhaps the most important bellwether of all, the US GDP growth, is estimated at a solid 3.9% for the current quarter.

The stock market itself is in robust health. The question is not whether it has grown, but if that growth is sustainable. Take a look at this graph of the S&P 500 going back 40 years.

The reason for this is no secret. A combination of zero interest rates, quantitative easing, and outsize performance by a small group of tech stocks, the Mag 7 as they are now called, have driven this dizzyingly high performance of the US public markets since Chuck Prince uttered his fateful words.

The investor Nassim Taleb once observed that a car driving at 200 mph in downtown Manhattan would have an “effective speed” of 0 mph. His point: relying solely on a single gauge (the speedometer) is useless if you ignore the surrounding territory (gridlocked intersections, double-parked trucks, and swarms of pedestrians).

Now that rates have risen and quantitative tightening is underway, all the burden of the continued growth rests on the shoulders of tech giants. While it is theoretically possible, and as techno-optimists would argue, highly probable, that this growth will continue, history suggests that we should be cautious.

The Shiller CAPE Ratio is a trusted indicator of irrational exuberance. This graph tracks its movement over the last century.

The peaks highlighted in the graph preceded the historic market crashes of 1901 and 1929, the Dot Com crisis of 2000, and the post-COVID pullback of 2021/2022. The metric is not an infallible predictor of stock market doom - it did not ‘predict’ the Great Financial Crisis - but it is enough to give pause to the more bullish of market participants.

The more bullish of market participants can tender numerous arguments as to why this time it really is different. And to be clear, it would not be wise to sell all stocks and pile up cash under the mattress.

But it would be wise to limit one’s exposure to a potential crash or correction. This is why investors are increasingly turning to private markets.

Private investments, as we have covered extensively in previous articles, are a way to restore diversification in an age when a simple 60:40 portfolio of stocks and bonds is 

As the value of private investments is not subject to minute-by-minute revaluation driven by sudden bouts of panic or euphoria, investors are more psychologically buffered as a result.

Perhaps most importantly of all, private investments allow for a genuinely long-term approach, in which the investment managers can affect strategic and operational changes to mitigate the macro-environment, even when a full-scale crash or economic meltdown is underway.

This is increasingly evident in the behavior of forward-thinking investors. For example, Preqin reported that the number of family offices with private markets exposure has increased by 524% since 2016.

Rather than dancing to the tune of the markets, we recommend our investors take control of their future. It may be the case that the current bull market continues to run for another decade, as technological advances defy the normal laws of investing gravity.

But it is also true that wisely managed private investments are equally capable of delivering market-beating returns. Hence, keeping a foot in both camps is the most prudent course of action to take.

Investing for Optimism and Resilience

Institutional investors don’t just succeed because of their financial resources, but because they make decisions anchored in a strong sense of purpose and discipline. Individual and family investors can adopt this mindset as well by defining their purpose and documenting their financial goals. At The Family Office, we believe that confidence in investing doesn’t come from speculation, but from a structured, thoughtful approach: one that can withstand market fluctuations and evolve with changing circumstances.

In this article, we explore the core principles of investing with purpose and discipline, and how they contribute to lasting success.

Investing should not be driven solely by the pursuit of financial returns; it should reflect deeper, long-term aspirations. Whether your goals include building a legacy, supporting philanthropic endeavors, or achieving financial independence, it’s crucial to clarify the "why" behind your wealth. This provides perspective and guidance, especially during periods of market volatility.

At The Family Office, we begin with a thorough exploration of each client’s purpose. This goal-based planning approach ensures that your investment strategy is aligned with your life’s ambitions, whether that’s securing future generations' financial independence, contributing to meaningful causes, or creating a sustainable income stream.

2. Set Clear Long-Term Goals and Short-Term Needs

An essential step in crafting a successful investment strategy is distinguishing between long-term growth objectives and short-term needs. Whether your goal is capital appreciation, generating income, or preserving wealth, your investment plan should reflect these priorities.

It is equally important to consider both essential spending, such as living expenses, and discretionary spending, such as lifestyle enhancements or luxury purchases. By clearly outlining your needs for the short-term alongside your long-term aspirations, you can create a balanced strategy that accounts for both current financial obligations and future wealth accumulation.

At The Family Office, we design strategies that are intended to seamlessly integrate today’s financial needs with tomorrow’s objectives, ensuring your strategy evolves alongside your circumstances.

3. Understand and Commit to Your Risk Profile

Risk is an inherent part of investing. Confidence in investing does not mean avoiding risk, but rather understanding and accepting it. By clearly defining your acceptable loss levels and risk tolerance, you can make informed, deliberate decisions that align with your financial capacity.

According to the CFA Institute, risk tolerance can fluctuate based on changing circumstances, such as market volatility and emotional states.

However, maintaining a clear, well-documented risk profile is crucial for staying aligned with your long-term goals and remaining resilient through market cycles. A defined risk profile helps prevent reactionary decisions during times of uncertainty, ensuring a disciplined approach to investing.

At The Family Office, we ensure that each client’s portfolio reflects their financial capacity and emotional tolerance for risk. With a well-defined risk profile, investors are better equipped to make thoughtful decisions, rather than succumbing to short-term market swings.

You can discover your risk profile by using our 

4. Maintain Discipline Through Uncertainty

Volatility is an inevitable part of the market. However, abandoning a well-thought-out strategy in response to short-term market fluctuations undermines long-term results.

At The Family Office, we follow a structured Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) framework, which helps us model the right investments for our clients based on their risk tolerance and financial objectives. This framework provides a tailored strategy, one that can withstand market turbulence.

Having a written plan, supported by the SAA framework, serves as a guidepost during turbulent times. It reinforces long-term goals and helps investors remain steadfast in the face of market disruptions.

5. Keep the Plan Dynamic and Aligned with Family Circumstances

Investing is not a one-time event, but an ongoing process that must evolve with your life’s changing circumstances. Major life events such as marriage, the birth of children, career shifts, or retirement can all impact your financial priorities. Therefore, it’s essential to regularly review and adjust your investment strategy to ensure it remains relevant and effective.

At The Family Office, we work with families across generations to adjust strategies as their needs evolve. Regular reviews ensure that your plan stays aligned with changing life circumstances and financial goals, providing the flexibility needed to adapt to shifting priorities. This dynamic approach keeps your investments aligned with your long-term vision, no matter where life takes you.

Confidence in investing comes from clarity, purpose, and discipline. By grounding investment decisions in well-defined goals and values, families can remain resilient during periods of market volatility and stay focused on what matters most. At The Family Office, we help clients invest with conviction, providing structure and guidance to ensure their strategies endure through market cycles and across generations. With a clear plan in place, investors can navigate uncertainty with calm and confidence, knowing their strategy is designed for long-term success.

Investing with Confidence: A Structured Approach for Long-Term Success

At $55 billion, it is the largest deal of its kind in history, eclipsing the purchase of TXU in 2007 for $45 billion.

 But while the headlines focus on the size of the transaction, the real significance for investors lies deeper in the details. This is what we plan to investigate in this article.

The buying consortium has, on the face of it, taken a considerable gamble. The price per share - $210 - represents a 25% premium over the stock’s value before the deal was rumored to be taking place.

 The debt component of the deal is also significant at 20 billion dollars.

To understand the rationale, we need to understand the challenges that EA currently faces.

Sales have been relatively stagnant for some years, reflecting a broader post-COVID normalization in the gaming market.

 Over the past five-year period, it has grown at roughly one-quarter of the pace of the market as a whole. Earlier this year, problems with its Global Football business caused its share price to slide by 16.7% in one day.

These circumstances make a private deal (with the right investors) a logical and highly attractive choice. Why is this?

While Wall Street may see a troubled under-performer, suffering from a post-COVID correction in demand, the acquiring consortium, led by veteran PE firm Silver Lake, sees opportunity and upside.

This view holds that a short-term oriented, public market is punishing EA for past errors, while underpricing the future potential of the firm should these problems be fixed.

Fixing these problems does not just refer to a burst of cost-cutting, but ambitious multi-year strategic initiatives, such as maximizing the value of the existing EA portfolio (which includes EA Sports FC, Madden NFL, and Apex Legends) and a global gamer base of approximately 700 million.

A private ownership structure provides the 

From an investor’s perspective, the above are naturally advantages as well. On a personal level, the long-term nature of the investment itself shields them from the short-termism and psychological buffeting of a constantly fluctuating market.

Crucially, it also provides a clear focus. With a continuous, identifiable investment team in charge of the process, it is possible to ‘bet the jockey, not just the horse’. Silver Lake, for instance, has a verifiable track record in turning around technology companies (Dell

The outlook for the global economy, and by implication, the capital markets, is an uncertain one.

There is a non-zero probability that future growth may not match the past two decades of double-digit returns. In such an environment, following the market may lead to disappointing results, or even missing important financial goals.

Targeting ‘alpha’ is a potential solution, but notoriously difficult to achieve in public markets, whether bullish or bearish, owing to the amount of public information and scrutiny. Carefully chosen deals, run by vetted, experienced teams, provide a realistic path to outperformance.

The only remaining issue is gaining access to such investment teams in the first place. This is where we support our clients, having worked with experienced dealmakers like Silver Lake for years, providing individual investors with institutional-grade opportunities.

‘Good times’ and ‘bad times’ are purely a matter of perspective. With the right attitude (and experience), opportunities are always abundant, in any market.

The Rise of Private Debt: A New Era for Capital Markets and Portfolios

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

4:00 pm (GMT+3)

Language: English

Shahab Rashid discusses the rise of private debt, marking a new era for capital markets and portfolios, including:

Speaker

Shahab Rashid

Moderator

Naji Nehme, CFA

Register Now

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