Highlights:
In the past quarter, mega-cap technology stocks outperformed, rising 13.2%. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices increased by 8.5% and 4.3%, respectively, over the same period.
Global economic growth is slowing, while inflation continues to moderate gradually.
In March, The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) expected the core PCE to be 2.6% for 2024, but it is currently at 2.8%.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, compared to 3.4% in January and April 2023. This rise in the unemployment rate, along with a decline in inflation, suggests that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates.
At The Family Office, we believe there is a high chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the September Fed meeting.
We currently favor credit over equities, given the generous yields and high equity valuations. We also believe that infrastructure is a strong field for protecting against inflation, especially in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
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